Price Prediction Features 

As a UX Design Lead at Expedia.com, I led the design for a collection of new features for airline flight shopping.

​The design project added new data visualizations to the company-wide design system. The project also led to significant email sign-ups (and lower acquisition costs) for the Expedia business. 

FEATURES LAUNCHED ✅
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•  A "price trends" tool that automatically aggregated pricing date for specific destinations based on Expedia users’ recent searches.

•  A "price prediction" feature that calculated the probability of certain price changes over a given week. 
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•  A "saved search” experience where flyers can view and repeat previous searches without re-entering trip information.

Business Context 📉

What sparked this design project was the introduction of Kayak's Price Prediction feature. Located in the top left of their desktop experience, this feature provided recommendations on booking windows for flight purchases. Expedia sought to leapfrog with our own pricing features. 

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PROJECT GOALS

• Design and launch market-leading pricing features
• Give right data at the right time for our users
• ​Increase organic repeat & email sign ups

User Interviews 🙋 

User interviews and surveys were conducted in order to gain a better understanding of what data users would want when purchasing a flight. By collecting this information from users, we identified areas for improvement which informed both data sets and features for design. 

​RESEARCH INSIGHTS​

• User wanted a “Price trends” that will automatically aggregate pricing date for specific destinations based on Expedia historical data.

• User wanted “Price prediction” that will calculate the probability of certain price changes over a given week. 
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• User wanted ‘Save Search” where flyers can view and repeat previous searches without re-entering trip information.

UX STRATEGY

If we make pricing more transparent, then users will have greater confidence to purchase, thus increasing total orders & organic repeat metrics. ​

New Pricing Features UI Design 📊

Price Trends is a continuous shopping tool that will be integrated into the search experience that automatically aggregates pricing data for a specific destination based on Expedia users' recent searches, and analyzes high/mid/low points by range over the last 14 days to reveal deeper insights regarding how the current flight price compares to recent historical data.

It is designed to offer shoppers an easy, straightforward assessment so they can instantly get a deeper understanding about how much current flight fares have increased or decreased over the past two weeks for a particular destination.

Price Trends UI Design
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This feature takes Price Trends to the next level by integrating more data and smart predictive analytics to calculate the probability of certain price changes over the next week. Drawing from existing data and real-time insights regarding airline inventory and industry booking trends,

​Expedia's new Price Prediction feature will surface actionable recommendations for travelers  by indicating the best time for them to book based on how prices for a given flight search are expected to increase or decrease over time.
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​In the future, it will also provide customers with recommendations about current fares available along with predictions about how quickly certain flight fares and options will likely sell out.

Saved Search Feature

Customers visit their Scratchpad to view and repeat searches they've previously completed without having to reenter trip information. 

​Structured Discovery is an extension to this content which presents results from alternate searches, such as different dates or nearby airports, reducing the need for customers to make these searches on their own.

Extension of Features to Booking Page

Overtime, the new pricing features extended to flight booking experiences. Providing a data-driven experience for all steps in the flight shopping experience. 

Search Results Page

Booking Page

User Testing Lab Sessions 🔎

To ensure the designs were understandable and actionable, the team spent extensive time in the Expedia Usability Lab. The two primary technical capabilities of the labs include eye tracking and electromyography (EMG) technology. 

We had the participant click through a live prototype of the design, then track the changes in the EMG readings to understand the real-time impact that the experience is having on the subject as they go through the booking process.

USER TESTING SUMMARY

Hypothesis

​Visually engaging designs that: 
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• Lead to the shopper seeing themselves in the flight experience and benefitting from the amenities.
   
• Will contribute to the flight shopper feeling more confident that they have chosen the right flight experience.
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• And encourage the purchase of amenities that suit the traveler

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Methods
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• Test new visually-oriented design concepts, and
• Explore the site elements that contribute to this confidence​

​Measurement
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• Visual attention with eyetracking
  
  
• Physiologic emotion with facial EMG, and verbal probes on their emotional experience
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• Verbal measures across time on their level of confidence and satisfaction they have chosen the right flight for them 

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Findings

Price comparison designs achieve high ease of use and comprehension. Additional actionable insights: 

• Shoppers preferred one, repeating visualization
• Need for simplification of mobile data

Better Experience, 
Better Business 📈

Alongside our Product Manager and Engineering partners, we constructed a Test and Learn roadmap for the Price Alerts designs. 

Iteratively, we tested the experiences - looking for positive boosts in email sign ups, and ultimately, conversion. The results are best summarized in an industry write up: 

​“The entire online travel market has improved its conversion rates,” said Ryan Williams, an analyst at Millward Brown Digital, a consulting firm that tracks Internet use. “But Expedia’s conversion improvement is outpacing the market.”
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PROJECT RESULTS 

✅   Increased Email Sign-Ups
✅   Increased Organic Repeat
✅   Democratize Data for Travel Shoppers!

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